Estimating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico: a mathematical approach

Flores-Arguedas, Hugo; Camacho-Guti'errez, Jos'e Ariel; Saldana, Fernando

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been critical in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these sanitary measures have been partially lifted due to socioeconomic factors causing a worrisome rebound of the epidemic in several countries. In this work, we assess the effectiveness of the mitigation implemented to constrain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican territory during 2020. We also investigate to what extent the initial deployment of the vaccine will help to mitigate the pandemic and reduce the need for social distancing and other mobility restrictions. Our modeling approach is based on a simple mechanistic Kermack-McKendrick-type model. To quantify the effect of NPIs, we perform a monthly Bayesian inference using officially published data. The results suggest that in the absence of the sanitary measures, the cumulative number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths would have been at least twice the official number. Moreover, for low vaccine coverage levels, relaxing NPIs may dramatically increase the disease burden; therefore, safety measures are of critical importance at the early stages of vaccination. The simulations also suggest that it may be more desirable to employ a vaccine with low efficacy but reach a high coverage than a vaccine with high effectiveness but low coverage levels. This supports the hypothesis that single doses to more individuals will be more effective than two doses for every person.