COVID-19 lockdowns cause global air pollution declines with implications for public health risk

Zander S Venter; Kristin Aunan; Sourangsu Chowdhury; Jos Lelieveld

(1100 to 1700) and 5300 (1000 to 11700), respectively. Assuming that the lockdown-induced 37 deviations in pollutant concentrations are maintained for the duration of 2020, we estimate 0.78 38 (0.09 to 1.5) million premature deaths and 1.6 (0.8 to 2) million pediatric asthma cases could be 39 avoided globally. While the state of global lockdown is not sustainable, these findings illustrate 40 the potential health benefits gained from reducing "business as usual" air pollutant emissions from 41 economic activities. Explore trends here: www.covid-19-pollution.zsv.co.za 42 Significance statement 43 The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented reductions in 44 economic activity. We find that lockdown events have reduced air pollution levels by 45 approximately 20% across 27 countries. The reduced air pollution levels come with a substantial 46 health co-benefit in terms of avoided premature deaths and pediatric asthma cases that 47 accompanied the COVID-19 containment measures. 48 Introduction: 49 In many developing nations economic growth has exacerbated air pollutant emissions with severe 50 consequences for the environment and human health. Long-term exposure to air pollution 51 including fine particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5µm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) are 52 estimated to cause ~8.8 million excess deaths annually (1, 2), while nitrogen dioxide (NO2) results 53 in 4 million new paediatric asthma cases annually (3). Despite the apparent global air pollution 54 "pandemic", anthropogenic emissions remain on positive trajectories for most developing and 55 some developed nations (4-6). 56 57