Author: Casella, Francesco
Title: Can the COVID-19 epidemic be managed on the basis of daily data? Cord-id: 6nqkoozu Document date: 2020_3_16
ID: 6nqkoozu
Snippet: Short answer: not much, and only with an overly cautious approach. The paper presents a simple mathematical model of the process and uses well-known results from control theory to prove that the approach taken by China and, to a slightly lesser extent, by Italy can work if the effect of delays is accounted for when taking the decision of the country lockdown, while the approach currently announced in the UK is likely to fail.
Document: Short answer: not much, and only with an overly cautious approach. The paper presents a simple mathematical model of the process and uses well-known results from control theory to prove that the approach taken by China and, to a slightly lesser extent, by Italy can work if the effect of delays is accounted for when taking the decision of the country lockdown, while the approach currently announced in the UK is likely to fail.
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