Author: Richard M Wood; Christopher J McWilliams; Matthew J Thomas; Christopher P Bourdeaux; Christos Vasilakis
Title: COVID-19 scenario modelling for the mitigation of capacity-dependent deaths in intensive care: computer simulation study Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: e79k4q76_23
Snippet: A number of scenarios relating to possible COVID-19 mitigations are modelled in order to inform planning of intensive care services at the hospital (Table 2) . These relate to changes in the epidemic curve for cases requiring intensive care (informed by government-led strategy regarding isolation, quarantine and social distancing), capacity at the hospital in terms of number of intensive care beds, and the patient length of stay in intensive care.....
Document: A number of scenarios relating to possible COVID-19 mitigations are modelled in order to inform planning of intensive care services at the hospital (Table 2) . These relate to changes in the epidemic curve for cases requiring intensive care (informed by government-led strategy regarding isolation, quarantine and social distancing), capacity at the hospital in terms of number of intensive care beds, and the patient length of stay in intensive care. The No isolation strategy involving no government-led effort with respect to isolation, quarantine and social distancing is considered within Scenario 1, alongside the current available capacity of 45 beds and the literature-informed gamma-distributed length of stay with mean 8 days. Given the UK Government's decision on 20 th March 2020 to implement isolative measures, the remainder of scenarios (2 through 7) are configured on the basis of this aforementioned Isolation strategy (Section 2.2).
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