Data-Driven Study of the the COVID-19 Pandemic via Age-Structured Modelling and Prediction of the Health System Failure in Brazil amid Diverse Intervention Strategies

Askery Canabarro; Elayne Tenorio; Renato Martins; Lais Martins; Samurai Brito; Rafael Chaves

In Tables V and VI, we show the estimated number of infected people and deaths, respectively, in the current scenario as well as if other NPI measures start to take place at April 11th (20 days after March 21st). Observe how the total of infected is still very high in the current scenario: around 3.15 million infected individuals, with an astonishing 393 thousands deaths. As discussed, the only scenario which considerably reduces the number of infected persons and deaths is an intense quarantine. It reduces to 34.5 thousand infections and 1300 deaths. In particular, we notice that changing the current NPI to SD60+ (social distancing of people above 60 years old), as been currently discussed by parts of the Brazilian federal government, is completely catastrophic. As this group corresponds to the majority of critical care demands and deaths, their isolation is certainly necessary.