Global dynamics of a general vector-borne disease model with two transmission routes

Nadim, Sk Shahid; Ghosh, Indrajit; Chattopadhyay, Joydev

In this paper, we study the dynamics of a vector-borne disease model with two transmission paths: direct transmission through contact and indirect transmission through vector. The direct transmission is considered to be a non-monotone incidence function to describe the psychological effect of some severe diseases among the population when the number of infected hosts is large and/or the disease possesses high case fatality rate. The system has a disease-free equilibrium which is locally asymptomatically stable when the basic reproduction number (R0) is less than unity and may have up to four endemic equilibria. Analytical expression representing the epidemic growth rate is obtained for the system. Sensitivity of the two transmission pathways were compared with respect to the epidemic growth rate. We numerically find that the direct transmission coefficient is more sensitive than the indirect transmission coefficient with respect to R0 and the epidemic growth rate. Local stability of endemic equilibria is studied. Further, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium is proved using Li and Muldowney geometric approach. The explicit condition for which the system undergoes backward bifurcation is obtained. The basic model also exhibits the hysteresis phenomenon which implies diseases will persist even when R0 < 1 although the system undergoes a forward bifurcation and this phenomenon is rarely observed in disease models. Consequently, our analysis suggests that the diseases with multiple transmission routes exhibit bi-stable dynamics. However, efficient application of temporary control in bi-stable regions will curb the disease to lower endemicity. In addition, increase in transmission heterogeneity will increase the chance of disease eradication.