COVID-19 most vulnerable Mexican cities lack the public health infrastructure to face the pandemic: a new temporally-explicit model

Wesley Dattilo; Alcides Castro e Silva; Roger Guevara; Ian MacGregor-Fors; Servio Pontes Ribeiro

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04. 10.20061192 doi: medRxiv preprint systems. Additionally, the most vulnerable cities to COVID-19 identified by our model do not have a higher number of inpatient and intensive care unit beds when standardized for every 10,000 inhabitants. If the number of infected people continues to grow in the assessed Mexican cities as it did in Wuhan (China), for instance, no Mexican city would be prepared to deal with this pandemic. The latter is due to the estimate of 24.5 inpatient beds and 2.6 intensive care unit beds for every 10,000 people would be needed during the peak of the epidemic (21) . Among the focal assessed Mexican cities, only Villahermosa, La Paz, and Monterrey have a sufficient number of inpatient beds than the estimated ones that would be needed per 10,000 (i.e., 29.1, 26.7 and 24.7, respectively). However, no Mexican city has enough intensive care unit beds, all being below 1.8 intensive care unit beds per 10,000 people, reason why they would overload 100 days after the initial condition of our model.