Author: Richard M Wood; Christopher J McWilliams; Matthew J Thomas; Christopher P Bourdeaux; Christos Vasilakis
Title: COVID-19 scenario modelling for the mitigation of capacity-dependent deaths in intensive care: computer simulation study Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: e79k4q76_16
Snippet: Running this simulation from start to finish offers just one possible explanation of how the pathway dynamics can play out and so, in order to capture the inherent stochasticity, it is necessary to perform an ensemble of replications. Each replication repeats the simulation with a different stream of random numbers from which the simulated arrivals, lengths of stay, and rejection probabilities of death and survival are generated. Outputs are then.....
Document: Running this simulation from start to finish offers just one possible explanation of how the pathway dynamics can play out and so, in order to capture the inherent stochasticity, it is necessary to perform an ensemble of replications. Each replication repeats the simulation with a different stream of random numbers from which the simulated arrivals, lengths of stay, and rejection probabilities of death and survival are generated. Outputs are then aggregated across these replications, with central estimates (based on the mean), inter-quartile range (IQR), and confidence bands (at the 95% level) calculated for the performance measures considered.
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