Author: Clément Massonnaud; Jonathan Roux; Pascal Crépey
Title: COVID-19: Forecasting short term hospital needs in France Document date: 2020_3_20
ID: i46n70gb_11
Snippet: Based on the estimated number of new cases per day, we inferred different outcomes. First, we computed the number of severe cases, defined according to Guan and colleagues 18 . We used their estimations of age-dependent severity risks across four age groups, which were dispatched across our 17 age groups (Table 1) . We also estimated the number of cases which will require hospitalization to ICU using age-dependent risks from Guan and colleagues .....
Document: Based on the estimated number of new cases per day, we inferred different outcomes. First, we computed the number of severe cases, defined according to Guan and colleagues 18 . We used their estimations of age-dependent severity risks across four age groups, which were dispatched across our 17 age groups (Table 1) . We also estimated the number of cases which will require hospitalization to ICU using age-dependent risks from Guan and colleagues 18 (Table 1) . Using data from Yang and colleagues 26 , we set the proportion of cases which will require mechanical ventilation to 0.711 (not age-dependent). The number of deaths was estimated using age-dependent deaths risks (10 age groups) provided by the Italian National Institute of Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità ) (Table 1) 27 .
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