COVID-19: Tracking the Pandemic with A Simple Curve Approximation Tool (SCAT)

Jane Courtney

While epidemiologists seek to understand the behaviour of the disease 11 , for many applications outside this field, a simple approximate curve will suffice. Mathematicians, engineers and others may recognise the curve as having a somewhat Gaussian shape 12 . Although this is not entirely true, a Gaussian curve does fit the data with reasonable accuracy, particularly in the rise phase. It also has the advantage of being defined by clearly understandable and adjustable parameters. This type of Gaussian model is in fact often used in epidemiological approximations, 13 and has been used to approximate other pandemics such as AIDS. 14 It should be noted that this model is only approximate, making it useful for visualisation but not for long-term predictions as was done in the AIDS study. 15 However, as presented in the results here, this model fits well to a fast-rising pandemic like COVID-19 and serves as a useful visualisation tool for approximating the curve.