Author: Sharma, Aryan; Sapkal, Srujan; Verma, Mahendra K.
Title: Universal Epidemic Curve for COVID-19 and Its Usage for Forecasting Cord-id: 00ybcgoj Document date: 2021_2_27
ID: 00ybcgoj
Snippet: We construct a universal epidemic curve for COVID-19 using the epidemic curves of eight nations that have reached saturation for the first phase and then fit an eight-degree polynomial that passes through the universal curve. We take India’s epidemic curve up to January 1, 2021 and match it with the universal curve by minimizing square-root error between the model prediction and actual value. The constructed curve has been used to forecast epidemic evolution up to February 25, 2021. The predic
Document: We construct a universal epidemic curve for COVID-19 using the epidemic curves of eight nations that have reached saturation for the first phase and then fit an eight-degree polynomial that passes through the universal curve. We take India’s epidemic curve up to January 1, 2021 and match it with the universal curve by minimizing square-root error between the model prediction and actual value. The constructed curve has been used to forecast epidemic evolution up to February 25, 2021. The predictions of our model and those of supermodel for India (Agrawal et al. in Indian J Med Res, 2020; Vidyasagar et al. in https://www.iith.ac.in/~m_vidyasagar/arXiv/Super-Model.pdf, 2020) are reasonably close to each other considering the uncertainties in data fitting.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- active case and machine learning: 1
- actual number and additional error: 1
- actual number and lockdown social distancing: 1, 2, 3, 4
- actual number and machine learning: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date