Data-Driven Study of the the COVID-19 Pandemic via Age-Structured Modelling and Prediction of the Health System Failure in Brazil amid Diverse Intervention Strategies

Askery Canabarro; Elayne Tenorio; Renato Martins; Lais Martins; Samurai Brito; Rafael Chaves

H means the healthcare demand due to hospitalized cases requiring critical attention in ICU. This equation can be coupled to the previous system (1) to estimate the time evolution of the health system demand (H). It is worth mentioning that the critical cases require long hospitalization, meaning that we will neglect the beds vacancies generated by recoveries or deaths. Although the number of ICUs is massively concentrated in capitals and big urban centers [13] , this in-homogeneity is not considered in our model, that should be seen as an average over all different regions in Brazil. The model can be further improved to account for a contact matrix C ij given the probability of contact between the age groups. However, it would be only a heuristic guess and we decide to not include it here. , social distancing of people with more than 60 years old (SD60+), voluntary home quarantine (VHQ) and intense quarantine (IQ). It reflects the fraction of individuals still susceptible after the measure is applied per age group. However, none of them are suppose to be fully respected and/or other contacts result as a by-product of the measure [9] , except for the case of total closed schools and universities as is happening in Brazil at the time of writing, see more details in the main text. For combination of NPIs, one should take the lowest value in each corresponding row.