Author: Johannes Opsahl Ferstad; Angela Jessica Gu; Raymond Ye Lee; Isha Thapa; Andrew Y Shin; Joshua A Salomon; Peter Glynn; Nigam H Shah; Arnold Milstein; Kevin Schulman; David Scheinker
Title: A model to forecast regional demand for COVID-19 related hospital beds Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: jjtsd4n3_19
Snippet: The model includes parameters for the hospital length of stay for COVID-19+ patients with severe and critical symptoms set to, respectively, 12 days in acute care and 7 days in intensive care. By default, 50% of the available acute and ICU beds is shown as the overall capacity for COVID-19+ patients. But another parameter allows the user to adjust the number of each type of bed that is available for COVID-19+ patient. [6, 7] The number of patient.....
Document: The model includes parameters for the hospital length of stay for COVID-19+ patients with severe and critical symptoms set to, respectively, 12 days in acute care and 7 days in intensive care. By default, 50% of the available acute and ICU beds is shown as the overall capacity for COVID-19+ patients. But another parameter allows the user to adjust the number of each type of bed that is available for COVID-19+ patient. [6, 7] The number of patients with severe and critical symptoms requiring hospitalization each day is calculated assuming that patients are admitted to the hospital on the day they test positive (this assumption will change when testing begins more seriously for non-symptomatic people) and are discharged after their length of stay. The cumulative number of patients with severe and critical symptoms requiring hospitalization is estimated as the product of the corresponding hospitalization rate and cumulative number of COVID+ people in the population. The number of patients in hospital beds on a specific day is defined as the cumulative number of patients admitted up to that day minus the corresponding cumulative number of patients discharged.
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