Author: Fook Hou Lee
Title: A Heuristic Model for Spreading of COVID 19 in Singapore Document date: 2020_4_18
ID: 6l7igbmx_28
Snippet: To illustrate the significance of this, if the number of detected cases on a certain day Qj = 120 (this being the peak number in Singapore, on 5 April 2020) and the detection efficiency k = 0.5, then number of undetected cases Pj = 120. If the daily infectivity r = 2, then at the start of the following day, we would expect the number of active cases to be ~360 and an upper-bound estimate of the probability of encountering an infected person in Si.....
Document: To illustrate the significance of this, if the number of detected cases on a certain day Qj = 120 (this being the peak number in Singapore, on 5 April 2020) and the detection efficiency k = 0.5, then number of undetected cases Pj = 120. If the daily infectivity r = 2, then at the start of the following day, we would expect the number of active cases to be ~360 and an upper-bound estimate of the probability of encountering an infected person in Singapore ~ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries), or 1 in 4200, which is ~3.6 times higher.
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