COVID-19: Tracking the Pandemic with A Simple Curve Approximation Tool (SCAT)

Jane Courtney

Although not intended for long-term prediction, SCAT has shown surprising accuracy in short-term forecasting for countries that have not attempted to flatten the curve. For example, the UK put no social distancing measures or government mandates in place until 18 March 2020 (day 77). 20 SCAT was applied the UK data on 11 March 2020 (day 71), with parameters = 8100, = 108, = 29 (See Figure 8 ). The curve was then revisited twenty days later, on 31 March 2020 (day 91), and less than 0.5 % error was observed. Results are shown in Table 1 . It should be reiterated, however, that SCAT should not be used for long-term prediction as diseases are rarely well behaved over time. This has been done erroneously with the AIDS pandemic, producing misleading results. 15 It is also hoped that the measures now in place will have a positive effect, so the recorded data should start deviating from the curve.