Selected article for: "reproduction number and stochastic transmission model"
Author: Adeshina Israel Adekunle; Michael Meehan; Diana Rojaz Alvarez; James Trauer; Emma McBryde
Title: Delaying the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: Evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans
  • Document date: 2020_3_27
    • ID: c1eemq9v_4
    Snippet: To model COVID-19 transmission we use a stochastic meta-population model, which categorizes the global population into susceptible, exposed, infectious or removed (SEIR) individuals. (See Appendix for full model specification). We parameterize the model to fit with observed case notification reports (4), allowing for un-notified cases. In China, we allow the reproduction number to be 2.63 from 1 st December, 2019 until 31 st January 2020, at whic.....
    Document: To model COVID-19 transmission we use a stochastic meta-population model, which categorizes the global population into susceptible, exposed, infectious or removed (SEIR) individuals. (See Appendix for full model specification). We parameterize the model to fit with observed case notification reports (4), allowing for un-notified cases. In China, we allow the reproduction number to be 2.63 from 1 st December, 2019 until 31 st January 2020, at which time extensive intervention measures successfully reduced the reproduction number to 1.73 (5) . For future predictions, we consider both of these values to consider best-and worst-case scenarios which are applicable to Australia.

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