Selected article for: "control spread and infection spread"
Author: Askery Canabarro; Elayne Tenorio; Renato Martins; Lais Martins; Samurai Brito; Rafael Chaves
Title: Data-Driven Study of the the COVID-19 Pandemic via Age-Structured Modelling and Prediction of the Health System Failure in Brazil amid Diverse Intervention Strategies
  • Document date: 2020_4_8
    • ID: kyy4z4wu_32
    Snippet: On the positive side, we have also identified a window of 25 days -from the March 21st to April 16th -in which, similarly to what has been done in China, if more severe control measures are be applied, one can control the virus spread and keep the ICU demand below the threshold (see the green curve in Fig. 4) . Given that the actual NPI scenario in Brazil is represented by the combination of the lowest values of the g i functions in Table II SD60.....
    Document: On the positive side, we have also identified a window of 25 days -from the March 21st to April 16th -in which, similarly to what has been done in China, if more severe control measures are be applied, one can control the virus spread and keep the ICU demand below the threshold (see the green curve in Fig. 4) . Given that the actual NPI scenario in Brazil is represented by the combination of the lowest values of the g i functions in Table II SD60+ and VHQ, the only possible measure is an intense quarantine (last column of Table II ). Except a intense quarantine, all the other scenarios are more catastrophic, meaning a faster collapse of the system. Although an emergence expansion and/or other measures can be tried, it is unlikely to keep the pace with the exponential spread of the infection.

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