Author: Yohannes Kinfu; Uzma Alam; Tom Achoki
Title: COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: atee6lis_7
Snippet: The model captures a combination of epidemiological, socio-economic and health system readiness related covariates. On the epidemiological side, it includes time since the introduction of the virus measured against March 31 2020, the rate of its expansion between week one and week two of the pandemic in the respective countries as well as the disease profile of each nation. We have modeled the 'early expansion factor' using air traffic as its ins.....
Document: The model captures a combination of epidemiological, socio-economic and health system readiness related covariates. On the epidemiological side, it includes time since the introduction of the virus measured against March 31 2020, the rate of its expansion between week one and week two of the pandemic in the respective countries as well as the disease profile of each nation. We have modeled the 'early expansion factor' using air traffic as its instrument because the early stage of the epidemic is presumed to be dominated by imported cases rather than due to community infection. Wooldridge's (1995) robust score test for endogeneity has confirmed our expectation that the rate of early expansion must be treated as endogenous.
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