COVID-19 Progression Timeline and Effectiveness of Response-to-Spread Interventions across the United States

Pai Liu; Payton Beeler; Rajan K Chakrabarty

( Figure 6) Conclusion. In this work, we performed a modelling study on the COVID-19 epidemic spread across the US using the epidemiological parameters observed from China. Our prognosis suggests that in the absence of disease control interventions and traffic restrictions, the nation-wide infected fraction could reach ~7% when the epidemic hits its peak by early June. If the transmissibility of COVID is reduced by 25% with respect to its baseline, the national epidemic peak could be delayed by about 34 days, along with a 39% reduction in peak magnitude. The COVID-19 epidemic in the US would fade out if a 50% reduction in disease transmissibility could be achieved across all states. Interstate mobility reduction is shown to be ineffective on delaying epidemic outbreak, but a wholesale interstate traffic restrictions slightly desynchronizes the arrival of state-wise local epidemic peaks, which could potentially alleviate burdens on medical resources. The timing of implementation of large scale disease control intervention is crucial, especially when the local population cannot withstand a lengthy society shutdown. State-by-state analysis shows that the state of Washington, New York, Washington DC, Massachusetts, Alaska, Louisiana, Colorado, and Vermont could be impacted by an earlier arrival of local epidemic peaks than the rest of the country. Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Florida face the risks posed by their large uninsured population and high liquid asset poverty rate. Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida share a higher overall COVID-19 mortality rate due to their aged demographic composition. Supplementary Materials (19) ) between the corresponding states.