Data-Driven Study of the the COVID-19 Pandemic via Age-Structured Modelling and Prediction of the Health System Failure in Brazil amid Diverse Intervention Strategies

Askery Canabarro; Elayne Tenorio; Renato Martins; Lais Martins; Samurai Brito; Rafael Chaves

where dx/dt is the derivative of variable x with respect to time, hence a time variation. In this manner, the corresponding right hand side of each equation provides the variation amount of the variable in time t, increasing or decreasing if the amount if positive or negative, respectively. Here, S i represents the susceptible individuals for age group i, I i stands for infected individuals in age group i, R indicates the recovered individuals no more susceptible to infection, and D is the death total. The variable I = 9 i=1 I i is the total number of infected people in a given time t. Here, β i , α i and γ i denote the apparent per day infection (as suggested by data), recovery and mortality rates for the age group i, respectively. Note that these parameters do not correspond to the actual per day infection, recovery and mortality rates as the new cases . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.