Selected article for: "accurate prediction and long term prediction"
Author: Jane Courtney
Title: COVID-19: Tracking the Pandemic with A Simple Curve Approximation Tool (SCAT)
  • Document date: 2020_4_11
    • ID: 6kl6uso6_9
    Snippet: Short-term prediction is accurate with less than 0.5% error when modelling the UK curve based on data taken 20 days earlier. It is not intended that this would be used for long-term prediction, as it is certainly not as sophisticated as complex epidemiological models. [16] [17] [18] Any user can modify the curve based on new data as SCAT is available freely online as a downloadable MS Excel workbook with some sample data provided for guidance. Fi.....
    Document: Short-term prediction is accurate with less than 0.5% error when modelling the UK curve based on data taken 20 days earlier. It is not intended that this would be used for long-term prediction, as it is certainly not as sophisticated as complex epidemiological models. [16] [17] [18] Any user can modify the curve based on new data as SCAT is available freely online as a downloadable MS Excel workbook with some sample data provided for guidance. Figure 2 shows examples of curves generated by SCAT, showing the original and flattened curve now so very familiar in COVID-19 reporting. SCAT can be used for verifying media reported figures, or simply for drawing the curve for publications. It should be noted that no causation is attached to any findings nor are any hypothetical scenarios investigated. The results presented here simply extrapolate from what is, based on currently available data.

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