Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases

Sebastian J. Schreiber; Ruian Ke; Claude Loverdo; Miran Park; Priyanna Ahsan; James O. Lloyd-Smith

Our cross-scale analysis opens the door for a new generation of integrative risk assessment models for pathogen emergence, which will integrate growing streams of data collected in laboratories and field surveillance programs [100, 101, 103] . At present we rely on the intuition of individual scientists to link together the discoveries from targeted experiments, massively parallel phenotypic screens, experimental evolution, clinical medicine, and field epidemiology and disease ecology. Mathematical and computational models that connect biological scales using mechanistic principles can make unique contributions to this transdisciplinary enterprise, by formally integrating diverse empirical findings and by identifying the crucial knowledge gaps to focus future research. The work presented here is a step on the path to realizing this potential.