Estimating the risk of 2019 Novel Coronavirus death during the course of the outbreak in China, 2020

Mizumoto, Kenji; Chowell, Gerardo

Since the first case of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCov) was identified in December 2019 in Wuhan City, China, the number of cases continues to grow across China and multiple cases have been exported to other countries. The cumulative number of reported deaths is at 637 as of February 7, 2020. Here we statistically estimated the time-delay adjusted death risk for Wuhan as well as for China excluding Wuhan to interpret the current severity of the epidemic in China. We found that the latest estimates of the death risk in Wuhan could be as high as 20% in the epicenter of the epidemic whereas we estimate it [~]1% in the relatively mildly-affected areas. Because the elevated death risk estimates are likely associated with a breakdown of the medical/health system, enhanced public health interventions including social distancing and movement restrictions should be effectively implemented to bring the epidemic under control.