Author: Alex Arenas; Wesley Cota; Jesus Gomez-Gardenes; Sergio Gomez; Clara Granell; Joan T. Matamalas; David Soriano-Panos; Benjamin Steinegger
Title: Derivation of the effective reproduction number R for COVID-19 in relation to mobility restrictions and confinement Document date: 2020_4_8
ID: nyjjaasw_20
Snippet: It is precisely the inclusion of social, demographic and mobility data in the expression of R(t) what makes this expression a fundamental tool to evaluate and anticipate the effects of confinement and the reduction of mobility. Containment measures are implemented in the model in the spirit of Maier et al. 17 . In this line, the containment measures confine a fraction κ 0 of the population at a given time t. The confinement leads to a reduction .....
Document: It is precisely the inclusion of social, demographic and mobility data in the expression of R(t) what makes this expression a fundamental tool to evaluate and anticipate the effects of confinement and the reduction of mobility. Containment measures are implemented in the model in the spirit of Maier et al. 17 . In this line, the containment measures confine a fraction κ 0 of the population at a given time t. The confinement leads to a reduction in the number of daily contacts to the household size and mobility. Furthermore, the confined population is subtracted from the pool of susceptible individuals but corrected accordingly to the permeability of the households φ (understood as the probability of members of a household to skip confinement for purchase of essential goods). Including these containment measures in the dynamical equations 7 of the proposed epidemic model is straightforward, see Supplementary Note 2.
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