Author: Alex Arenas; Wesley Cota; Jesus Gomez-Gardenes; Sergio Gomez; Clara Granell; Joan T. Matamalas; David Soriano-Panos; Benjamin Steinegger
Title: Derivation of the effective reproduction number R for COVID-19 in relation to mobility restrictions and confinement Document date: 2020_4_8
ID: nyjjaasw_24
Snippet: To illustrate the sudden change in R(t) caused by the implementation of a confinement triggering a subcritical regime κ 0 > κ c 0 , in Figure 3 we show the evolution of R(t) in the case of Spain when confinement is applied on March 14, 2020. Furthermore, we present the evolution of the effective reproduction number of adults (g = M ) for each municipality in Spain, showing that they reach R M i (t) = 1 in different stages. This reveals that the.....
Document: To illustrate the sudden change in R(t) caused by the implementation of a confinement triggering a subcritical regime κ 0 > κ c 0 , in Figure 3 we show the evolution of R(t) in the case of Spain when confinement is applied on March 14, 2020. Furthermore, we present the evolution of the effective reproduction number of adults (g = M ) for each municipality in Spain, showing that they reach R M i (t) = 1 in different stages. This reveals that the decision to relax containment measures must take into account the entire set of municipalities and not be based exclusively on the effective reproduction number of the country. In particular, relaxing the confinement before every single age group g within each patch i fulfills the condition R g i < 1
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