A County-Level Susceptibility Index and Coronavirus Disease 2019 Mortality in the United States: A Socioecological Study

Khan, S.; McCabe, M.; Krefman, A.; Petito, L. C.; Yang, X.; Kershaw, K.; Pool, L.; Allen, N. B.

As of June 2020, the United States (US) has experienced the highest number of deaths related to coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in the world, but significant geographic heterogeneity exists at the county-level. Therefore, we sought to classify counties in the United States across multiple domains utilizing a socioecological framework and examine the association between these county-level groups and Covid-19 mortality. We harmonized and linked county-level sociodemographic, health, and environmental metrics associated with increased susceptibility for Covid-19 mortality. Latent class analysis defined a county-level susceptibility index (CSI) based on these metrics (n=2701 counties). Next, we used linear regression models to estimate the associations of the CSI and Covid-19 deaths per capita and initial mortality doubling time (as of 6/2/20), adjusted for days since first Covid-19 case. We identified 4 groups classified by the CSI with distinct sociodemographic, health, and environmental profiles and widespread geographic dispersion. Covid-19 deaths per capita were significantly higher in the group consisting of rural, vulnerable counties (55.8 [95% CI 50.3-61.2] deaths per 100,000) compared with the group with diverse, urban counties (32.2 [27.3-37.0]) at similar points in the outbreak (76 days since first case). Our findings can inform equitable resource allocation for Covid-19 to allow targeted public health preparedness and response in vulnerable counties.