COVID-19: Forecasting short term hospital needs in France

Clément Massonnaud; Jonathan Roux; Pascal Crépey

As of March 5, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) reported 91,315 COVID-19 confirmed cases in 81 countries, and 3,282 deaths (3.4%). In Europe, 38 countries reported cases, Italy accounting for the majority of them, with 3,089 cases out of 4,290 (72%), and 107 deaths out of 113 (94.7%). France was ranked second with 423 cases and 5 deaths (1.2%) 6 . On March 11, WHO declared a pandemic, as 106 countries reported 118,628 confirmed cases and 4,292 deaths (3.6%) 7 . In Europe, the number of countries affected increased to 47, Italy still accounting for the majority of cases. 8 Figure 1 shows the number of cases in metropolitan France from January 22 to March 14 (source Santé Publique France). As of March 10, midnight, 2,030 cases were confirmed, leading to 44 deaths (2.2%) 8 . The two Regions the most impacted were Grand Est and Ile-de-France, with 489, and 468 cases, respectively. People aged over 75 years accounted for 19% of the cases but around 75% of the deaths 8 . As of March 10, 102 cases had been hospitalized into Intensive Care Units (ICU), 38% of them aged 65 years or less. The doubling time is approximately 72h, as the number of cases increased from 1,126 to 2,269 between March 8 and March 11, and from 2,269 to 4,469 between March 11 and March 14. It must be noted that it is likely that the number of confirmed cases is underestimating the true number of cases as all cases are not necessarily identified due to logistical issues in some Regions 8 . SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic virus, and bats are believed to be its reservoir. However, human-to-human transmission has been largely reported 9 . Transmission occurs mostly via droplets and fomites during close unprotected contact. Information about the main transmission parameters is still relatively scarce, and can vary according to the settings, the data, and the methods used.