SARS-CoV-2: big seroprevalence data from Pakistan—is herd immunity at hand?

Haq, Mohsina; Rehman, Asif; Ahmad, Junaid; Zafar, Usman; Ahmed, Sufyan; Khan, Mumtaz Ali; Naveed, Asif; Rajab, Hala; Muhammad, Fawad; Naushad, Wasifa; Aman, Muhammad; Rehman, Hafeez Ur; Ahmad, Sajjad; Anwar, Saeed; Haq, Najib Ul

PURPOSE: Seroprevalence surveys from different countries have reported SARS CoV-2 antibodies below 20% even in the most adversely affected areas and herd immunity cannot be predicted till more than half of the population gets the disease. The purpose of this survey was to estimate the magnitude of community-based spread of the infection, associated immunity, and the future prospects and proximity to a ‘herd community’. METHODS: The study was undertaken as a cluster randomized, cross-sectional countrywide survey. This largest community-based seroprevalence data of SARS-CoV-2 were collected between 15th and 31st July, 2020 from seven randomly selected cities belonging to the three most populous provinces of Pakistan. The FDA approved kit of ROCHE was used for detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. RESULTS: Serum samples of 15,390 participants were tested for SARS CoV-2 antibodies with an overall seroprevalence of 42.4%. The seroprevalence ranged from 31.1% to 48.1% in different cities with the highest in Punjab province (44.5%). In univariable analysis, the odds of seropositivity was higher in men compared to women (OR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01–1.19, P < 0.05). In multivariable analysis, the risk of being seropositive was lower (OR 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60–0.87, P < 0.01) in younger group (≤ 20 years) than in those aged above 60 years. CONCLUSION: The study concluded that despite a reasonable seroprevalence, the country is yet to reach the base minimum of estimations for herd immunity. The durability of immunity though debated at the moment, has shown an evidenced informed shift towards longer side. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s15010-021-01629-2.