Data-Driven Study of the the COVID-19 Pandemic via Age-Structured Modelling and Prediction of the Health System Failure in Brazil amid Diverse Intervention Strategies

Askery Canabarro; Elayne Tenorio; Renato Martins; Lais Martins; Samurai Brito; Rafael Chaves

Even with the combination of CSU, HVQ and SD60+ taking place, our model predicts millions of infected individuals, with a peak taking place around the middle of May, 2020 (see Fig. 3 (top)) in agreement with the projection for Brazil in Ref. [29] , and consequently an exponential increase in the demand for ICUs. In fact, as can seen in Fig. 4 , already at the end of April we will surpass the current capacity of ICUs. The health system is still under treat in the current scenario, indicated to collapse by the end of Abril, 2020 (around 30 days after t 0 == March 21, 2020), vigorously crossing the 5500 ICUs barrier. Moreover, the scenario is even worse if the imposed NPIs are relaxed (as being constantly debated by part of the Brazilian federal government), pointing out tens of millions of infected individuals, see black curve in Fig. 3 (bottom) .