A Gaussian model for the time development of the Sars-Cov-2 corona pandemic disease. Predictions for Germany made on March 30, 2020

Schlickeiser, Reinhard; Schlickeiser, Frank

For Germany it is predicted that the first wave of the corona pandemic disease reaches its maximum of new infections on April 11th, 2020 +5.4-3.4 days with 90 percent confidence. With a delay of about 7 days the maximum demand on breathing machines in hospitals occurs on April 18th, 2020 +5.4-3.4 days. The first pandemic wave ends in Germany end of May 2020. The predictions are based on the assumption of a Gaussian time evolution well justified by the central limit theorem of statistics. The width and the maximum time and thus the duration of this Gaussian distribution are determined from a statistical Ξ2-fit to the observed doubling times before March 28, 2020.