NO INCREASE IN RELATIVE MORTALITY RATES FOR THOSE WITHOUT A COLLEGE DEGREE DURING COVID-19: AN ANOMALY

Case, A.; Deaton, A.

American mortality rates have diverged in recent years between those with and without a four-year college degree, and there are many reasons to expect the education-mortality gradient to have steepened during the pandemic. Those without a BA are more likely to work in frontline occupations, to rely on public transportation, and to live in crowded quarters, all of which are associated with an increase in infection risk, a risk that was zero prior to the pandemic. We use publicly available data from the National Center for Health Statistics on deaths by age, sex, education and race/ethnicity to assess the protective effect of a BA in 2020 compared to 2019. While the BA was strongly protective during 2020, the ratio of mortality rates between those with and without a degree was little changed relative to pre-pandemic years. Among 60 groups (gender by race/ethnicity by age) that are available in the data, the relative risk reduction associated with a BA fell for more than half the groups between 2019 and 2020, and increased by more than 5 percentage points for only five groups. Our main finding is not that the BA was protective against death in 2020, which has long been the case, but that the protective effect was little different than in 2019 and earlier years, in spite of the change in the pattern of risk by occupation and income. The virus maintained the mortality-education gradient that existed pre-pandemic, at least through the end of 2020. Our results suggest that changes in the risk of infection were less important in structuring mortality than changes in the risk of death conditional on infection.