Assessing the relative contributions of healthcare protocols for epidemic control: an example with network transmission model for COVID-19

Baumgartner, M. T.; Lansac-Toha, F. M.

The increasing number of COVID-19 cases threatens human life and requires retainment actions that control the spread of the virus in the absence of effective medical therapy or a reliable vaccine. There is a general consensus that the most efficient health protocol in the actual state is to disrupt the infection chain through social distancing, although economic interests stand against closing non-essential activities and poses a debatable tradeoff. In this study, we used an individual-based age-structured network model to assess the effective roles of different healthcare protocols such as the use of personal protection equipment and social distancing at neighbor- and city-level scales. Using as much as empirical data available in the literature, we calibrated a city model and simulated low, medium, and high parameters representing these protocols. Our results revealed that the model was more sensitive to changes in the parameter representing the rate of contact among people from different neighborhoods, which defends the social distancing at the city-level as the most effective protocol for the control of the disease outbreak. Another important identified parameter represented the use of individual equipment such as masks, face shields, and hand sanitizers like alcohol-based solutions and antiseptic products. Interestingly, our simulations suggest that some periodical activities such as going to the supermarket, gas station, and pharmacy would have little contribution to the SARS-CoV-2 spread once performed within the same neighborhood. As we can see nowadays, there is an inevitable context-dependency and economic pressure on the level of social distancing recommendations, and we reinforce that every decision must be a welfare-oriented science-based decision.