Insufficient social distancing may be related to a future COVID-19 outbreak in Ijui-Brazil: Predictions of further social interventions.

Heck, T. G.; Frizzo, M. N.; Francois, C. H. R.; Ludwig, M. S.; Mesenburg, M. A.; Buratti, G. P.; Franz, L. B. B.; Berlezi, E. M.

The coronavirus disease that initiates in 2019 (COVID-19) has proven to be highly contagious since it became pandemic quickly and nowadays presents higher transmission rates worldwide, including small Brazilian cities, as Ijui. Located in the northwestern of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) with 83,475 inhabitants, Ijui was selected to receive a population-based survey divided into four steps separated by 15 days each that involved 1,750 subjects. Subjects were tested for the presence of antibodies against coronavirus (SARS CoV-2) and answered questions about social distance adherence, daily routine, comorbidities, and sociodemographic characteristics. In parallel, the local government registered the official COVID-19 cases in Ijui. In this study, we demonstrated the levels of social distancing adherence and the beginning of COVID-19 community transmission in Ijui and showed some predictions for cases, hospitalization, and deaths. We concluded that the insufficient social distancing registered in the population-based study might be related to the rapid increase of COVID-19 cases in Ijui. Our study predicts a closer outbreak of community infection of COVID-19, which could be avoided or attenuated if the levels of the social distancing in the population increase in the next weeks.