COVID-19 projections for reopening Connecticut

Crawford, Forrest W.; Li, Zehang Richard; Morozova, Olga

Closure of schools and the statewide "Stay Safe, Stay Home" order have effectively reduced COVID-19 transmission in Connecticut, with model projections estimating incidence at about 1,300 new infections per day. If close interpersonal contact increases quickly in Connecticut following reopening on May 20, the state is at risk of a substantial increase of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by late Summer 2020. Real-time metrics including case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths may fail to provide enough advance warning to avoid resurgence. Substantial uncertainty remains in our knowledge of cumulative COVID-19 incidence, the proportion of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, infectiousness of children, the effects of testing and contact tracing on isolation of infected individuals, and how contact patterns may change following reopening.