Author: Adeshina Israel Adekunle; Michael Meehan; Diana Rojaz Alvarez; James Trauer; Emma McBryde
Title: Delaying the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: Evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: c1eemq9v_2
Snippet: With 565 confirmed cases (3) and still counting, COVID-19 now looks certain to cause sustained local transmission within Australia. Therefore, at this time it is reasonable to reflect on the value of travel restrictions imposed to date, and to consider the benefit of ongoing travel restrictions in the coming weeks and months, when community transmission starts to increase. We answer these questions using OAG-travel data and a meta-population mode.....
Document: With 565 confirmed cases (3) and still counting, COVID-19 now looks certain to cause sustained local transmission within Australia. Therefore, at this time it is reasonable to reflect on the value of travel restrictions imposed to date, and to consider the benefit of ongoing travel restrictions in the coming weeks and months, when community transmission starts to increase. We answer these questions using OAG-travel data and a meta-population model for disease transmission. First we examine the counterfactuals: what would have happened had the travel ban from Wuhan/China not been implemented. Similarly we examine the impacts of bans to other emerging epicentres including Iran, Italy, and South Korea. We then examine the impacts for the future and compare the cases expected through community transmission, and from importation over the next 2 months.
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