Author: Joshua A Salomon
Title: Defining high-value information for COVID-19 decision-making Document date: 2020_4_8
ID: iymhykq8_12
Snippet: Our base case results show that an extraordinarily wide range of scenarios would be consistent with the cumulative confirmed cases through March 15. In the no intervention scenario (Figure 1) , without any interruptions to the natural spread of infection, and allowing for deliberately broad ranges around parameter values, projections through May 31 span from 165,000 to more than 5 million total cases in the Bay Area, comprising an illustrative w.....
Document: Our base case results show that an extraordinarily wide range of scenarios would be consistent with the cumulative confirmed cases through March 15. In the no intervention scenario (Figure 1) , without any interruptions to the natural spread of infection, and allowing for deliberately broad ranges around parameter values, projections through May 31 span from 165,000 to more than 5 million total cases in the Bay Area, comprising an illustrative worst-case hypothetical. Incorporating the potential impact of NPIs since March 15 leads to a dramatic projected reduction in case numbers and hospitalizations against the hypothetical no intervention scenario, and to a substantially lower probability of exceeding hospital capacity over the projected time horizon.
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