Author: Alex Arenas; Wesley Cota; Jesus Gomez-Gardenes; Sergio Gómez; Clara Granell; Joan T. Matamalas; David Soriano-Panos; Benjamin Steinegger
Title: A mathematical model for the spatiotemporal epidemic spreading of COVID19 Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: knt1f78p_6
Snippet: between patches are mostly due to the mobility of active population. On the other hand, the medical evolution of COVID-19 displays strong differences across age groups [13, 28, 29] . In this regard, infections in the young group lead to mild symptoms [30] that, without test, are often confused with those of a common cold, whereas for old individuals the infection evolves towards more severe symptoms and usually requires hospitalization. The model.....
Document: between patches are mostly due to the mobility of active population. On the other hand, the medical evolution of COVID-19 displays strong differences across age groups [13, 28, 29] . In this regard, infections in the young group lead to mild symptoms [30] that, without test, are often confused with those of a common cold, whereas for old individuals the infection evolves towards more severe symptoms and usually requires hospitalization. The model incorporates the possibility of designing and evaluating the impact of contention policies to stop the propagation of SARS-CoV-2. In particular, we focus on those policies relying on global or targeted quarantine measures. They allow the selection of the optimum degree of mobility to avoid the health system crisis. Taking advantage of this possibility, we explore several epidemic scenarios characterized by different contention measures promoted on March 20, and evaluate their impact on the decrease of the epidemic prevalence and the saturation of the Spanish health system.
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