Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19

Jennifer Beam Dowd; Valentina Rotondi; Liliana Adriano; David M Brazel; Per Block; Xuejie Ding; Yan Liu; Melinda C Mills

Starting from March 8 th , the shutdown implemented in the province of Lodi, was expanded to the entirety of Lombardy (including Bergamo) and to fourteen provinces in Veneto, Emilia 2 Lombardy is one of those Northern Italian regions that experienced a slight growth in the population in recent years. However, this growth is mainly due to immigration flows both from within and outside the country. Indeed, also in Lombardy the natural balance is negative and decreasing since 2012. According to Eurostat, Lombardy is also the most populated region in Italy and one among the wealthier regions in Europe, with a GDP per capita amounting to €37,800 in 2017 (compared to €28,400 in Italy and €29,500 in the EU) (https://ec.europa.eu/growth/tools-databases/regional-innovation-monitor/base-profile/lombardy) 3 However, the decree did not have immediate implementation. The control plan did not start rigidly, and checkpoints were not very effective. Law enforcement officers (at least 500 men) are deployed only on February 25 to ensure that no one enters and exits the so-called red areas creating 35 gates.