Author: Roberts, M. G.; Heesterbeek, J. A. P.
Title: Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection Cord-id: 1qo06ypf Document date: 2007_8_8
ID: 1qo06ypf
Snippet: We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of [Formula: see text] with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent. We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an est
Document: We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of [Formula: see text] with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent. We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an estimate of [Formula: see text] , and we quantify the discrepancies that arise.
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