Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Characteristics Using a Birth-and-Death Model

Viswanath, N. C.

Its spreading speed together with the risk of fatality might be the main characteristic that separates COVID-19 from other infectious diseases in our recent history. In this scenario, mathematical modeling for predicting the spread of the disease could have great value in containing the disease. Several very recent papers have contributed to this purpose. In this study we propose a birth-and-death model for predicting the number of COVID-19 active cases. It relation to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model has been discussed. An explicit expression for the expected number of active cases helps us to identify a stationary point on the infection curve, where the infection ceases increasing. Parameters of the model are estimated by fitting the expressions for active and total reported cases simultaneously. We analyzed the movement of the stationary point and the basic reproduction number during the infection period up to the 20th of April 2020. These provide information about the disease progression path and therefore could be really useful in designing containment strategies.