Author: Jennifer Beam Dowd; Valentina Rotondi; Liliana Adriano; David M Brazel; Per Block; Xuejie Ding; Yan Liu; Melinda C Mills
Title: Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_18
ID: gv8wlo06_5
Snippet: Going forward, demographically informed projections will better predict the COVID-19 burden and inform governments about targeted action. While population age structure is crucial for understanding the populations at the highest risk of mortality both across and within countries, it is also vital for understanding how much social distancing measures are required in each population to reduce the number of most critical cases and overload on the he.....
Document: Going forward, demographically informed projections will better predict the COVID-19 burden and inform governments about targeted action. While population age structure is crucial for understanding the populations at the highest risk of mortality both across and within countries, it is also vital for understanding how much social distancing measures are required in each population to reduce the number of most critical cases and overload on the health system-aka "flattening the curve"(13). Our illustrations show that countries with older populations will need to take more aggressive protective measures to stay below the threshold of critical cases that outstrip health system capacity. For these measures to be effective, special attention should be devoted to those population groups that are more at risk and patterns of intergenerational contact.
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