Identification of Vulnerable Populations and Areas at Higher Risk of COVID-19 Related Mortality in the U.S.

Correa-Agudelo, Esteban; Mersha, Tesfaye B.; Hernández, Andrés; Branscum, Adam J.; MacKinnon, Neil J.; Cuadros, Diego F.

BACKGROUND: The role of health-related disparities including sociodemographic, environmental, and critical care capacity in the COVID-19 pandemic are poorly understood. In the present study, we characterized vulnerable populations located in areas at higher risk of COVID-19 related mortality and low critical healthcare capacity in the U.S. METHODS: Using Bayesian multilevel analysis and small area disease risk mapping, we assessed the spatial variation of COVID-19 related mortality risk for the U.S. in relation with healthcare disparities including race, ethnicity, poverty, air quality, and critical healthcare capacity. RESULTS: Overall, highly populated, regional air hub areas, and minorities had an increased risk of COVID-19 related mortality. We found that with an increase of only 1 ug/m3 in long term PM2.5 exposure, the COVID-19 mortality rate increased by 13%. Counties with major air hubs had 18% increase in COVID-19 related death compared to counties with no airport connectivity. Sixty-eight percent of the counties with high COVID-19 related mortality risk were also counties with lower critical care capacity than national average. These counties were primary located at the North- and South-Eastern regions of the country. CONCLUSION: The existing disparity in health and environmental risk factors that exacerbate the COVID-19 related mortality, along with the regional healthcare capacity, determine the vulnerability of populations to COVID-19 related mortality. The results from this study can be used to guide the development of strategies for the identification and targeting preventive strategies in vulnerable populations with a higher proportion of minority groups living in areas with poor air quality and low healthcare capacity.