An Augmented SEIR Model with Protective and Hospital Quarantine Dynamics for the Control of COVID-19 Spread

G., R.

In this work, an attempt is made to analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak mathematically using a modified SEIR model with additional compartments and a nonlinear incidence rate with the help of bifurcation theory. Existence of a forward bifurcation point is presented by deriving conditions in terms of parameters for the existence of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. The significance of having two additional compartments, viz., protective and hospital quarantine compartments, is then illustrated via numerical simulations. From the analysis and results, it is observed that, by properly selecting transfer functions to place exposed and infected individuals in protective and hospital quarantine compartments, respectively, and with apt governmental action, it is possible to contain the COVID-19 spread effectively. Finally, the capability of the proposed model in predicting/representing the COVID-19 dynamics is presented by comparing with real-time data.