Author: Leonardo R Lopez; Xavier Rodo
Title: A modified SEIR model to predict the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain: simulating control scenarios and multi-scale epidemics Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: m27nyzrw_17
Snippet: Results with the current epidemic evolution for Spain, show that over 1, 400, 000 quarantined infections would be reported by the end of April, with an estimated burden of over 100, 000 deaths. A four times increase in the levels of protected population would represent a huge gain in the number of both clinically diagnosed infections and casualties ( Figure 5) . A decrease to around 200, 000 infected is achieved and a reduction to below 50, 000 d.....
Document: Results with the current epidemic evolution for Spain, show that over 1, 400, 000 quarantined infections would be reported by the end of April, with an estimated burden of over 100, 000 deaths. A four times increase in the levels of protected population would represent a huge gain in the number of both clinically diagnosed infections and casualties ( Figure 5) . A decrease to around 200, 000 infected is achieved and a reduction to below 50, 000 deaths. Much larger reductions in both infected and deaths can be achieved if much stricter measures result in more drastic reductions in the number of effective contacts. Best case scenario simulated with ten times the efficacy of the observed alpha on March, 23, can result in a more recent arrival to a peak of around 100, 000 cases (around early April) and with a decrease in casualties to around 30, 000.
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