Author: Alex Arenas; Wesley Cota; Jesus Gomez-Gardenes; Sergio Gómez; Clara Granell; Joan T. Matamalas; David Soriano-Panos; Benjamin Steinegger
Title: A mathematical model for the spatiotemporal epidemic spreading of COVID19 Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: knt1f78p_47
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03. 21.20040022 doi: medRxiv preprint The model is amenable for analytical calculations. We calculate the epidemic threshold using the next generation matrix approach [42] . Accordingly, we need to analyze the stability of the disease free equilibrium. We do so by making a first order expansion of the above equations for small values of the .....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03. 21.20040022 doi: medRxiv preprint The model is amenable for analytical calculations. We calculate the epidemic threshold using the next generation matrix approach [42] . Accordingly, we need to analyze the stability of the disease free equilibrium. We do so by making a first order expansion of the above equations for small values of the non-susceptible states m: ∼ Ï m i Ï S j ∀i, j and Ï m i 1 ∀i, where m ∈ {E, A, I, H, D, R}. The expansion allows us to transform our discrete time Markov Chain into a continuous time differential equation. We start by expanding the infection probabilities P g i :
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