Discovery of pharmaceutically-targetable pathways and prediction of survivorship for pneumonia and sepsis patients from the view point of ensemble gene noise

Tristan de Jong; Victor Guryev; Yury M. Moshkin

In an attempt to increase the prediction accuracy, we trained to separated gradient boosted tree models for CAP ( Figure 4 ) and sepsis ( Figure 5 ) patients. Indeed, in both cases the accuracy of the prediction of the minor class (deceased patients) increased (Table 2 and S2) in both discovery and validation cohorts. Likewise, AUCs for the validation cohorts were also higher as compared to the model predicting mortality for both (CAP and sepsis) type of patients (compare Figure 4B and 5B with Figure 3B ). To that, differences in AUCs between discovery and validation cohorts were lower for the models predicting mortality separately for CAP and sepsis patients as for the model trained on both type of patients. This was especially evident for the model predicting mortality for the CAP patients ( Figure 4B ). Thus, knowing the cause of sepsis improves the prediction accuracy of the models. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.10.035717 doi: bioRxiv preprint