Author: Vir Bannerjee Bulchandani; Saumya Shivam; Sanjay Moudgalya; S L Sondhi
Title: Digital Herd Immunity and COVID-19 Document date: 2020_4_18
ID: k8xuv5xy_7
Snippet: In the balance of this paper we do the following. We begin by summarizing the case for contact tracing as an effective strategy for combating COVID-19. We then introduce a simple branching-process model for the spread of this disease, that incorporates the key features necessary to assess the efficacy of a digital, app-based approach, namely asymptomatic transmission, pre-symptomatic transmission and recursive contact tracing. We find in general .....
Document: In the balance of this paper we do the following. We begin by summarizing the case for contact tracing as an effective strategy for combating COVID-19. We then introduce a simple branching-process model for the spread of this disease, that incorporates the key features necessary to assess the efficacy of a digital, app-based approach, namely asymptomatic transmission, pre-symptomatic transmission and recursive contact tracing. We find in general that there is a critical fraction 0 ≤ φ c < 1 of app ownership, such that takeup of contact-tracing apps by a fraction φ > φ c of the population is sufficient to prevent epidemic spread. We provide an analytical, "self-consistent mean-field" estimate for this threshold, which is verified against detailed numerical simulations. In the final discussion, we address the applicability of our results to the specific context of India.
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