The importance of the human factor during the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: the successful case of the Italian strategy

Scarpazza, C.; Musumeci, G.; Camperio Ciani, A. S.

In Italy, 311364 cases and 35851 deaths of people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were registered as of September 29th, 2020. To avoid the spreading of the virus, mathematical models predicting the course of infection spread1 become the basis to plan stringent countermeasures. We applied a published algorithm to real data up to September 27th, modeling two scenarios where predicted and real data were compared: a conservative scenario with a lockdown still ongoing and a scenario reflecting what actually happened in Italy, where the lockdown has been removed. Results revealed that the number of individuals in life-threatening condition is much lower than predicted, as well as the number of symptomatic individuals. Contrarily, the number of asymptomatic individuals is much higher than predicted. This suggest that human beings are not passive victims, but active fighters able to change the course of the infection creating adaptive strategies against the infection spread.