Evolving Infection Paradox of SARS-CoV-2: Fitness Costs Virulence?

Alam, A. S. M. R. U.; Islam, O. K.; Hasan, M. S.; Islam, M. R.; Mahmud, S.; AlEmran, H. M.; Jahid, I. K.; Crandall, K. A.; Hossain, M. A.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 is continuously spreading worldwide at an unprecedented scale and evolved into seven clades according to GISAID where four (G, GH, GR and GV) are globally prevalent in 2020. These major predominant clades of SARS-CoV-2 are continuously increasing COVID-19 cases worldwide; however, after an early rise in 2020, the death-case ratio has been decreasing to a plateau. G clade viruses contain four co-occurring mutations in their genome (C241T+C3037T+C14408T: RdRp.P323L+A23403G:spike.D614G). GR, GH, and GV strains are defined by the presence of these four mutations in addition to the clade-featured mutation in GGG28881-28883AAC:N. RG203-204KR, G25563T:ORF3a.Q57H, and C22227T:spike.A222V+C28932T-N.A220V+G29645T, respectively. The research works are broadly focused on the spike protein mutations that have direct roles in receptor binding, antigenicity, thus viral transmission and replication fitness. However, mutations in other proteins might also have effects on viral pathogenicity and transmissibility. How the clade-featured mutations are linked with viral evolution in this pandemic through gearing their fitness and virulence is the main question of this study. Methodology: We thus proposed a hypothetical model, combining a statistical and structural bioinformatics approach, endeavors to explain this infection paradox by describing the epistatic effects of the clade-featured co-occurring mutations on viral fitness and virulence. Results and Discussion: The G and GR/GV clade strains represent a significant positive and negative association, respectively, with the death-case ratio (incidence rate ratio or IRR = 1.03, p <0.001 and IRR= 0.99/0.97, p < 0.001), whereas GH clade strains showed no association with the Docking analysis showed the higher infectiousness of a spike mutant through more favorable binding of G614 with the elastase-2. RdRp mutation p.P323L significantly increased genome-wide mutations (p<0.0001) since more expandable RdRp (mutant)-NSP8 interaction may accelerate replication. Superior RNA stability and structural variation at NSP3:C241T might impact upon protein or RNA interactions. Another silent 5'UTR:C241T mutation might affect translational efficiency and viral packaging. These G-featured co-occurring mutations might increase the viral load, alter immune responses in host and hence can modulate intra-host genomic plasticity. An additional viroporin ORF3a:p.Q57H mutation, forming GH-clade, prevents ion permeability by cysteine (C81)-histidine (H57) inter-transmembrane-domain interaction mediated tighter constriction of the channel pore and possibly reduces viral release and immune response. GR strains, four G clade mutations and N:p.RG203-204KR, would have stabilized RNA interaction by more flexible and hypo-phosphorylated SR-rich region. GV strains seemingly gained the evolutionary advantage of superspreading event through confounder factors; nevertheless, N:p.A220V might affect RNA binding. Conclusion: These hypotheses need further retrospective and prospective studies to understand detailed molecular and evolutionary events featuring the fitness and virulence of SARS-CoV-2.