How Fast Vaccination Can Control the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil?

Oliveira, R. S.; Xavier, C. R.; da Fonseca Vieira, V.; Rocha, B. M.; Reis, R. F.; de Melo Quintela, B.; Lobosco, M.; dos Santos, R. W.

The first case of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) was registered in Wuhan, China, in November 2019. In March, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic. The effects of this pandemic have been devastating worldwide, especially in Brazil, which occupies the third position in the absolute number of cases of COVID-19 and the second position in the absolute number of deaths by the virus. A big question that the population yearns to be answered is: When can life return to normal? To address this question, this work proposes an extension of a SIRD-based mathematical model that includes vaccination effects. The model takes into account different rates of daily vaccination and different values of vaccine effectiveness. The results show that although the discussion is very much around the effectiveness of the vaccine, the daily vaccination rate is the most important variable for mitigating the pandemic. Vaccination rates of 1M per day can potentially stop the progression of COVID-19 epidemics in Brazil in less than one year. © 2021, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.